Prognostic risk assessment model for development of focal forms of tick-borne encephalitis

Lyubeznova O.N., Karaulova L.V., Bondarenko A.L., Kushkova N.E.

Kirov State Medical University of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Kirov, Russia

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is an endemic disease for many territories of the Russian Federation. The development of a method for predicting the development of focal forms of the disease is relevant. To build a binary logistic regression model, we used data on the presence or absence of a tick bite in the anamnesis, as well as immunogenetic parameters (the presence or absence of alleles of the DRB1 gene (DRB1*01, 04, 07, 16) of 104 patients with an established diagnosis of "Tick-borne encephalitis". Analysis of the resulting logit model shows that the presence of the DRB1*1, DRB1*4, DRB1*7, DRB1*16 genes in the phenotype has a significant impact on the development of focal forms of TBE. The regression coefficient for the "Presence of a tick bite" feature is negative and significant. The area under the ROC curve above 70% indicates the high prognostic significance of the model. The presented model will help specialists predict further unfavorable outcomes of the disease and prescribe timely and adequate examination and treatment in each specific case.